Five Middle East Predictions for 2015
Graham Fuller*
Only a fool offers longer term predictions about the Middle East.
I offer the following longer terms predictions about the Middle East for 2015.
1- ISIS will decline in power and influence. I have stated
earlier that I do not believe ISIS is viable as a state; it lacks any
coherent and functional ideology, any serious political and social
institutions, any serious leadership process, any ability to handle the
complex and detailed logistics of governance, and any opportunity of
establishing state-to-state relations in the region. Additionally it has
alienated a majority of Sunni Muslims in the world, regardless
of deep dissatisfactions among Sunnis in Iraq and Syria. Ideally ISIS
should fail and fall on its own, that is, without massive external, and
especially Western, intervention that in some ways only strengthens its
ideological claims. To be convincingly and decisively defeated, the idea of ISIS, as articulated and practiced, needs to demonstrably fail on its own and in the eyes of Muslims of the region.
2- The role of Iran as an actor in the region will grow. Despite
all the hurdles, I feel optimistic about US negotiations with Iran. Both
parties desperately need success in this regard. Normalization is
ludicrously long overdue and necessary to the regional order.
Furthermore, Iran and Turkey, are the only two “real” governments in the
region today with genuine governance based on some kind of popular
legitimacy—for all their faults. Turkey is democratic, Iran
semi-democratic (presidential elections, while not fully representative,
really matter.) These two states espouse many of the aspirations of the
people of the region in ways no Arab leader does. The Gulf will be
forced to accommodate itself to the reality of a normalized Iran; the
two sides have never really been to war, despite all the occasional
bellicose noises that have emerge from them periodically over the past
century. Iran is post-revolutionary power with a vision of a truly
sovereign Middle East free of western domination– none of the Arab
states truly are. Iran’s influence in the region will also grow in
supporting growing regional challenges to Israel’s efforts to keep the
Palestinians under permanent domination.
3- President Erdoğan in Turkey will find his influence beginning
to crumble in 2015. After a brilliant prime-ministership for the first
decade of AKP power, he has become mired in corruption charges and has
lashed out in paranoid fashion against any and all who criticize or
oppose his increasingly irrational, high-handed, and quixotic style of
rule. He is in the process of damaging institutions and destroying his
and his party’s legacy. I continue to have faith that Turkey’s broader
institutions, however weakened by Erdoğan, will nonetheless suffice to
keep the country on a basically democratic and non-violent track until
such time as Erdoğan loses public confidence—which could be sooner
rather than later.
4- Russia will play a major role in diplomatic arrangements in
the Middle East, an overall positive factor. Russia’s ability to play a
key diplomatic (and technical) role in resolving the nuclear issue in
Iran, and its important voice and leverage in Syria represent
significant contributions to resolution of these two high-priority,
high-risk conflicts that affect the entire region. It is essential that
Russia’s role be accepted and integrated rather than seen as a mere
projection of some neo-Cold War global struggle—a confrontation in which
the West bears at least as much responsibility as Moscow. The West has
insisted on provoking counter-productive confrontation with Moscow in
trying to shoehorn NATO into Ukraine. Can you imagine an American
reaction to a security treaty between Mexico and China, that included
stationing of Chinese weapons and troops on Mexican soil?
5- The Taliban will make further advances towards gaining power
within the Afghan government. After 13 years of war in Afghanistan the
US failed to bring stability to the country as a whole, or to eliminate
the Taliban as a major factor in the national power equation. The
Taliban is much more than an Islamist movement; it has in many ways been
a surrogate for nationalist Pashtun power within Afghanistan (although
not accepted as such by all Pashtun). The Pashtun lost out big when the
Taliban government was overthrown by the US in 2001; inclusion of
mainstream Taliban within the new government is essential to future
Afghan stability. The Taliban will seek to strengthen their power on the
ground this year in order to enhance their powers of political demand
in any possible future negotiations over power sharing. They cannot be
functionally excluded. Desperately needed stability in Pakistan also
depends in part upon such a settlement.
* Graham
Fuller is among the best analysts the CIA has ever produced. He is now
a well seasoned academic and scholar about Islam and the region. I
have read several of his books and articles. Any US administration will
be well served to follow his advice on the Middle East. His
predictions are worth considering.
Roger Akl
Version en ligne de la revue E-O. Twitter: @EuropeEtOrient
